Jeb’s Path to Victory – Winner Takes All States and a Brokered Convention

By Charles Cervantes – Washington, DC [CapitalWirePR] February 8, 2016 –

Smart Money: The “smart money” says that no candidate will have the 1,236 delegates necessary to win the nomination going into the national convention in July. The early states are no longer a bellwether for predicting who will eventually be the nominee. In 2012 Rick Santorum won Iowa. In 2008 Mike Huckabee won Iowa. New Hampshire in 2012 gave Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman a combined 40% of the vote. Paul got 3 delegates. Huntsman got 2. They quickly faded out of the race. Iowa has 30 delegates that are awarded proportionally. Cruz won Iowa with 28% and gets 8 delegates. The balance was spread among the other candidates. If Trump or Cruz gets 30% of New Hampshire’s 23 delegates, the winner gets only 7 delegates. The balance of delegates is spread among the other candidates.

The media darlings of the day, back in early 2012, were Michelle Bachman and Newt Gingrich. The network “talking heads” were assured they would clinch the nomination early. Newt rode this “media wave” to victory in South Carolina with 40 % of the vote and garnered 23 delegates to Mitt’s 2. By convention time, Mitt had 1,489 delegates. Santorum came in second place with 258. In third place was Ron Paul with 154. A distant 4th was the “former Front Runner”, Newt with 142. Media hype and inaccurate polling can take one only so far.

The Long and Winding Road.
On the other hand, several “Mega-states” with large numbers of delegates are “Winner Take All”. The three largest are California 172, Texas 155, Florida 99. There are 13 more of significance. Among these are states with “Traditional” Republican Governors are Ohio, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Indiana and Maryland. Should Jeb win these states, he could amass as many as 1,043 delegates. The demographics and dynamics of these states are vastly different from Iowa and New Hampshire. These delegates comprise 89.3% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. Jeb will also pick up percentages of other state’s delegates to add to this number of the delegates needed to win the nomination. The other candidates will split proportionately the delegates from other states. I predict six (6) candidates making it to the convention. No candidate will have a majority to win on the first ballot, so it will be brokered. The fun starts here, with the horse trading, logrolling, backslapping and glad handing. This “brokered convention” will select the nominee. Trump’s overly presumptive 30% (only 24 % in Iowa) will be insufficient to overcome the aggregate of the “Traditional” candidates with proven records of governance – Bush, Kasich, Christie and Rubio. Expect them to throw their votes to Jeb. At a brokered convention, a “Traditional candidate” will consolidate 70 % of the delegates and will get the nomination; most likely Jeb, Rubio, Kasich or Christie.

Trump vs. Cruz.
This leaves Trump and Cruz to fight it out for the losing balance of the delegates. Trump will say this is “not fair” and will go independent in hopes of putting Hillary into office. Trump will not honor his pledge.

Cruz is an opportunist whose attacks on “The Cartel” create a false narrative. Cruz is more “establishment” than most of the other candidates. He is Princeton, Harvard, DC court clerk, lawyer to John Boehner and a person whose jobs have been mostly government jobs. Moreover, his wife is an executive of the Goldman Sachs firm, which is the epitome of Washington-Wall Street insiders. Goldman Sachs loaned him $1 million for his campaign. This loan was not fully disclosed. Ted Cruz cannot say he is an outsider. The facts belie his false claims. This charade will end his short rise in the polls.

Trump is a narcissist and a demagogue. William F. Buckley made this observation in 2000. The National Review believes that Trump does not embrace the traditional Republican brand. Instead, he tarnishes it. What serious political candidate would continuously say? – “I am smart. Really, really smart.” “I am rich. Really, really rich.” He says his uncle was a professor at MIT and thinks his genes have something to do with his being smart. This smacks of eugenics. He preys upon xenophobic fears and on “the dark underbelly of the human condition”. Trump insults, demeans and defames large classes of people. He then turns around and says things like, “They all love me. They love me.” He is more than unkind to Americans who may be an immigrant, have an immigrant past or have immigrant ancestors, as I do. This man cannot broadly insult, demean and defame large groups of persons and then say that “they all love me”. This is neither true nor credible. It is Un-American.

Really, Really Smart?
How smart can a businessman be, when after being granted exclusive gambling licenses in New Jersey, borrows millions of OPM (other people’s money) and then goes bankrupt on all four enterprises? A business with a gambling license never loses money. The house always wins. How could Trump be so “really, really, smart” and suffer four colossal bankruptcies? Once again, Trump is not credible.

No “Self-Funding” – In-kind millions from media conglomerates.
The media created Trump and promotes “Trump the Celebrity Candidate”. CNN, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, Fox, Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham and NewsMax give Trump millions and millions of dollars of free TV and talk radio campaign advertising. Other candidates pay for 30 second ads. Add up the minutes. Costly TV and radio advertising is “The Mother’s Milk” of politics. Trump is not self- funding. Rather, the large media corporations are giving him massive and unfair in-kind contributions.

Trump speaks another false narrative.
On the other hand, the media has imposed a virtual blackout on Jeb, Rubio, Kasich and Christie. Could the media be in cahoots with Trump to throw the election, as Ross Perot did for Bill Clinton? Trump’s core business is comprised of: gambling casinos, “celebrity” golf courses, luxury hotels, “Celebrity TV reality” shows and female beauty pageants. This resume is not the experience required to fill the position of Commander In Chief or Chief Executive Officer of the United States of America.

Palin, Duck Dynasty and House Wives of Beverly Hills?
What about Palin’s endorsement of Trump? Trump is shallow and vulgar and unfit to be Commander in Chief or Chief Executive Officer of our country. The Trump-Palin national security strategy reveals the shallowness of a purported policy dealing with ISIS. Trump says we will “Bomb the s— out of them!” Palin says, “He will kick ISIS’s a–!” Can any foreign head of state take either of these persons seriously? Trump and Palin have been making money over the past several years as “celebrities” on TV reality shows. This may qualify them to produce or host the House Wives of Beverly Hills or the Kardashians, but not the highest office in the land.

Proven Record of Accomplishment.
In contrast, Jeb Bush has successfully managed Florida for eight years. Florida is a large, diverse and economically vibrant state. His fiscal management increased its bond rating to AAA. He created jobs and improved educational quality, provided educational choice and expanded opportunities for all of Florida’s children. His recent speech at the Citadel embraces a well-conceived plan to stop the gutting of our military and intelligence communities by ending mindless sequestration and modernizing our air force and navy. His father and brother have very large national organizations that are merging with Jeb’s Florida-base. Jeb has an eight year proven record of success. The two first term Senators have accomplished nothing. They have not even finished their first term in office! In comparison, Jeb’s record of managing a complex state of 20,000,000 citizens for eight years, prepares him to manage our nation. He will patiently accrue delegates from the actual primary elections through June of this year. He will roll into the convention in July in the best possible position to win the nomination on merit – not on a bully’s bluster. He is the responsible adult among the candidates who will take the interests of all Americans into consideration.

The “Silly Season” Ends: The Long Journey Begins.
The “Silly Season” will soon end and the inaccurate polls and ratings craving pundits will have to yield to the voters when they enter the sanctity of the voting booth. The American voters will disprove the media mavens. Join Jeb on his journey. One can join Jeb with the following character traits: belief, courage, will power, principle, discipline, loyalty and patience. Democracy will work its magic and we will elect the candidate most capable and trustworthy to lead our nation out of its downward tailspin. Jeb Bush is that candidate.

By Charles Cervantes is a Virginia businessman and a graduate of the University of Texas School of Law.

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